Killeen, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

733
FXUS64 KFWD 062349
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
549 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms this evening may bring a threat for large
  hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado across parts of North
  TX.

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will continue to bring a threat
  for severe weather and flash flooding this weekend and into next
  week, especially Saturday and Tuesday-Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 529 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A strong cap has won the battle today, effectively preventing
storms from developing in our area this afternoon. The threat for
severe storms has greatly diminished, but a low chance for severe
storms continues through the evening hours, mainly across North
Texas. Hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards with any
robust storm that manages to develop, but a low threat for a
tornado also remains.

Updated the forecast to reduce the POPs to less than 40% for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening hours as coverage of
showers and storms will likely be mostly isolated. Overnight,
we`ll see showers and storms move into the region from the west as
a cold front moves across the state. Severe weather is not
expected, but any stronger storms may produce small hail and
gusty winds.

JLDunn

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Southwest flow aloft remains in place across the Southern Plains
this afternoon, downstream from a broad western trough. As this
larger scale trough begins to evolve over the next 24 hours, a
northern-stream shortwave will split off and eject through the
Plains this evening and tonight while a closed low develops and
settles farther southwest toward Baja/northern Mexico by Saturday.
The net result for North and Central Texas will be a continued
unsettled pattern with multiple opportunities for convection
through the forecast period. At the surface, the forecast area is
firmly within a moist warm sector ahead of an approaching dry
line/cold front. Deep Gulf moisture is already in place, and the
airmass over the region is notably moist for early March with
precipitable water values nearing or at daily climatological
maxima. Aloft, increasing large-scale ascent will continue to
overspread the region through tonight.

The main forecast challenge through the afternoon continues to be
the erosion of lingering capping (as seen on the 18Z special
sounding and area ACARs soundings). Despite a favorable moisture
axis, steep mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient shear for
organized convection, the warm layer aloft may continue to act as
an effective limiter to storm coverage for a few more hours. In
other words, the environment may be supportive of severe storms
where updrafts can become sustained, but not every area will
necessarily realize that potential. This will keep coverage in the
isolated to scattered category through much of the afternoon and
evening. The best storm coverage will likely be near and east of
I-35 within the deeper moisture plume, and near and north of I-20
where stronger ascent will reside.

Any storms that do develop through the mid to late afternoon and
into the early evening will be capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and even a couple tornadoes. The greatest severe risk
should reside where storms can remain more surface-based within
the warm sector and along any remnant or convectively generated
boundaries. Localized backing of the low-level flow near outflow
could also enhance low level shear on a very isolated basis, but
these mesoscale corridors will be difficult to diagnose in
advance. Farther west, initiation along the dryline appears more
conditional, so confidence remains lower in a more robust western
North Texas storm scenario before sunset.

Storm chances will continue overnight as the cold front moves
south into North Texas. Convection may increase in coverage at
times late tonight into Saturday morning as frontal forcing
strengthens, but storm mode and hazard type will likely become
increasingly tied to boundary evolution. If storms can remain
rooted near the surface along or just ahead of the effective
boundary, severe hazards would remain on the table early Saturday.
If ongoing convection becomes increasingly undercut by the front
or reinforced outflow, the dominant concern would gradually shift
toward heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

By Saturday, the front will continue pressing south from the
forecast area, though its exact position may be modulated by
convective outflow from earlier storms. This will be important
because the effective boundary may not line up perfectly with the
synoptic front at times. Wherever that composite boundary sets up
will serve as the primary focus for renewed development,
localized enhancements in low level shear, and the potential for
training convection. Storms that can remain more organized along
and south of the boundary may still pose a severe weather threat,
including large hail, while the broader concern may increasingly
transition to heavy rainfall. As alluded to earlier, the
environment will be supportive of efficient rainfall rates, and
any southwest-to-northeast training segments along the boundary
could lead to a flash flood threat. This risk will be tied much
more to where storms repeatedly develop than to uniform areawide
rainfall. The severe and hydro threat should generally shift south
with the front through the day Saturday, with convection becoming
more focused across Central Texas by afternoon and into the early
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The broader pattern will remain active through much of the next
work week as the southern stream low settling towards
Baja/northern Mexico becomes the dominant feature in the extended
period. As this upper low eventually begins to shift slowly east,
periodic lift and multiple opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms will persist across North and Central Texas through
at least the middle of next week. Saturday night into Monday
should have a relative lull in coverage across most of North
Texas, with the best rain chances lingering across Central and
Southeast Texas.

Rain and storm chances should return to North Texas Monday
afternoon, increasing areawide Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper
low begins to shift east and larger scale ascent strengthens
across the region. Exactly how this period evolves will depend on
the degree of warm sector recovery, but the pattern supports
additional rounds of convection with both severe weather and
flooding remaining possible. The flood threat may become
increasingly sensitive to where heavier rainfall occurs this
weekend. The pattern continues to look more dry and seasonable by
the end of the week and into the weekend in the wake of the
departing upper low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The threat for showers and storms has greatly diminished, but
will keep VCSH in the TAFs for a few more hours as shower activity
continues to develop and move across the TAF airports. Gusty
winds and the convective development will further diminish after
about 02Z.

MVFR cigs between 1500-2500 feet will spread across the region
overnight ahead of a cold front moving through the region.
Showers and isolated storms will accompany the front along with
breezy northwest winds. Severe weather is not expected, but small
hail and gusty winds could occur in stronger storms. The front
will move through the region in the morning hours, but MVFR cigs
and showers will continue into the afternoon hours. There is
considerable uncertainty how far behind the front convective
activity will occur across the DFW Airports, and at least a VCSH
mention may need to be added after 17Z with future TAF issuances.
Convective activity will likely linger in Central Texas longer
into the afternoon hours, extending the hours of impacts to flight
operations at KACT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely not be needed through the evening
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  67  50  72 /  70  80  30  10
Waco                61  70  51  70 /  30  90  50  20
Paris               60  66  48  71 /  90  80  50  10
Denton              52  65  43  72 /  80  80  30  10
McKinney            58  66  48  72 /  70  80  40  10
Dallas              59  68  51  72 /  70  80  30  10
Terrell             61  71  49  72 /  70  90  50  10
Corsicana           66  75  54  73 /  50  90  60  20
Temple              65  74  52  71 /  30  80  60  30
Mineral Wells       52  63  44  74 /  80  80  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLDunn
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...JLDunn